tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dallas-Fort Worth → Fayetteville/Springdale/ via Washington: arrives on time 33%

  1. 14:56 DFW → 18:59 DCA
    AA 3101 · American · 3h 03m · 54% on time, 4.2% cancelled
  2. 49m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:48 DCA → 21:48 XNA
    AA 3452 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 56m · 82% on time, 4.8% cancelled

Total trip 6h 48m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection44%The first flight arrived more than 4 minutes late on 56% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 49m layover.
Arrives on time33%First flight not cancelled (4.2% are) × connection made (44%) × second flight not cancelled (4.8% are) and within 15 minutes (82%).
Total trip6h 48mDFW 14:56 to XNA 21:48, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.