tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dallas-Fort Worth → New York via Washington: arrives on time 18%

  1. 14:56 DFW → 18:59 DCA
    AA 3101 · American · 3h 03m · 54% on time, 4.2% cancelled
  2. 59m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:58 DCA → 21:30 JFK
    AA 4474 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 32m · 50% on time, 27.3% cancelled

Total trip 5h 34m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Dallas-Fort Worth). Times are local. Both flew on 22 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection53%The first flight arrived more than 14 minutes late on 47% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 59m layover.
Arrives on time18%First flight not cancelled (4.2% are) × connection made (53%) × second flight not cancelled (27.3% are) and within 15 minutes (50%).
Total trip5h 34mDFW 14:56 to JFK 21:30, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.