tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Santa Ana via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 38%

  1. 17:01 LGA → 20:10 DFW
    AA 3103 · American · 4h 09m · 60% on time, 10.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 06m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:16 DFW → 22:24 SNA
    AA 348 · American · 3h 08m · 74% on time, 6.7% cancelled

Total trip 8h 23m, scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind New York). Times are local. Both flew on 34 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection61%The first flight arrived more than 21 minutes late on 39% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 06m layover.
Arrives on time38%First flight not cancelled (10.4% are) × connection made (61%) × second flight not cancelled (6.7% are) and within 15 minutes (74%).
Total trip8h 23mLGA 17:01 to SNA 22:24, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.