tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Little Rock via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 40%

  1. 17:01 LGA → 20:10 DFW
    AA 3103 · American · 4h 09m · 60% on time, 10.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 01m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:11 DFW → 22:35 LIT
    AA 4079 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 24m · 77% on time, 1.7% cancelled

Total trip 6h 34m, scheduled departure to arrival (Little Rock is 1 h behind New York). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection60%The first flight arrived more than 16 minutes late on 40% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 01m layover.
Arrives on time40%First flight not cancelled (10.4% are) × connection made (60%) × second flight not cancelled (1.7% are) and within 15 minutes (77%).
Total trip6h 34mLGA 17:01 to LIT 22:35, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.