tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Houston → New York via Chicago: arrives on time 59%

  1. 06:13 IAH → 09:07 ORD
    AA 3106 · American · 2h 54m · 89% on time, 5.4% cancelled
  2. 3h 43m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 12:50 ORD → 16:28 JFK
    AA 4371 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 38m · 71% on time, 11.4% cancelled

Total trip 9h 15m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Houston). Times are local. Both flew on 44 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection99%The first flight arrived more than 178 minutes late on 1% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 43m layover.
Arrives on time59%First flight not cancelled (5.4% are) × connection made (99%) × second flight not cancelled (11.4% are) and within 15 minutes (71%).
Total trip9h 15mIAH 06:13 to JFK 16:28, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.