tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Philadelphia → Chicago via Boston: arrives on time 14%

  1. 15:20 PHL → 16:47 BOS
    AA 3116 · American · 1h 27m · 47% on time, 5.6% cancelled
  2. 51m layover in Boston (BOS) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:38 BOS → 19:59 ORD
    AA 1592 · American · 3h 21m · 38% on time, 8.3% cancelled

Total trip 5h 39m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Philadelphia). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection42%The first flight arrived more than 6 minutes late on 58% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 51m layover.
Arrives on time14%First flight not cancelled (5.6% are) × connection made (42%) × second flight not cancelled (8.3% are) and within 15 minutes (38%).
Total trip5h 39mPHL 15:20 to ORD 19:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.