tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Newark → Orlando via Miami: arrives on time 34%

  1. 18:30 EWR → 21:55 MIA
    AA 3119 · American · 3h 25m · 75% on time, 6.9% cancelled
  2. 54m layover in Miami (MIA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:49 MIA → 23:59 MCO
    AA 1813 · American · 1h 10m · 50% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 29m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection73%The first flight arrived more than 9 minutes late on 27% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 54m layover.
Arrives on time34%First flight not cancelled (6.9% are) × connection made (73%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (50%).
Total trip5h 29mEWR 18:30 to MCO 23:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.