tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Newark → New Orleans via Miami: arrives on time 44%

  1. 18:30 EWR → 21:55 MIA
    AA 3119 · American · 3h 25m · 75% on time, 6.9% cancelled
  2. 1h 10m layover in Miami (MIA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 23:05 MIA → 00:09 MSY +1 day
    AA 2552 · American · 2h 04m · 64% on time, 1.2% cancelled

Total trip 6h 39m, scheduled departure to arrival (New Orleans is 1 h behind Newark). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection75%The first flight arrived more than 25 minutes late on 25% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 10m layover.
Arrives on time44%First flight not cancelled (6.9% are) × connection made (75%) × second flight not cancelled (1.2% are) and within 15 minutes (64%).
Total trip6h 39mEWR 18:30 to MSY 00:09, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.