tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Tampa via Charlotte: arrives on time 38%

  1. 17:00 JFK → 19:30 CLT
    AA 3120 · American · 2h 30m · 70% on time, 3.7% cancelled
  2. 46m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:16 CLT → 21:59 TPA
    AA 2022 · American · 1h 43m · 68% on time, 2.3% cancelled

Total trip 4h 59m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection60%The first flight arrived more than 1 minutes late on 40% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 46m layover.
Arrives on time38%First flight not cancelled (3.7% are) × connection made (60%) × second flight not cancelled (2.3% are) and within 15 minutes (68%).
Total trip4h 59mJFK 17:00 to TPA 21:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.