tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Minneapolis via Charlotte: arrives on time 49%

  1. 17:00 JFK → 19:30 CLT
    AA 3120 · American · 2h 30m · 70% on time, 3.7% cancelled
  2. 59m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:29 CLT → 22:13 MSP
    AA 2176 · American · 2h 42m · 75% on time, 1.9% cancelled

Total trip 6h 11m, scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind New York). Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection69%The first flight arrived more than 14 minutes late on 31% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 59m layover.
Arrives on time49%First flight not cancelled (3.7% are) × connection made (69%) × second flight not cancelled (1.9% are) and within 15 minutes (75%).
Total trip6h 11mJFK 17:00 to MSP 22:13, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.