tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Phoenix via Charlotte: arrives on time 43%

  1. 17:00 JFK → 19:30 CLT
    AA 3120 · American · 2h 30m · 70% on time, 3.7% cancelled
  2. 1h 04m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:34 CLT → 22:00 PHX
    AA 936 · American · 4h 26m · 62% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 8h 00m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind New York). Times are local. Both flew on 26 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection73%The first flight arrived more than 19 minutes late on 27% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 04m layover.
Arrives on time43%First flight not cancelled (3.7% are) × connection made (73%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (62%).
Total trip8h 00mJFK 17:00 to PHX 22:00, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.