tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → Santa Ana via Phoenix: arrives on time 57%

  1. 07:41 MSP → 09:00 PHX
    AA 3143 · American · 3h 19m · 85% on time, 0.6% cancelled
  2. 1h 15m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:15 PHX → 11:43 SNA
    AA 2655 · American · 1h 28m · 62% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 02m, scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 2 h behind Minneapolis). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection92%The first flight arrived more than 30 minutes late on 8% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 15m layover.
Arrives on time57%First flight not cancelled (0.6% are) × connection made (92%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (62%).
Total trip6h 02mMSP 07:41 to SNA 11:43, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.