tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Newark via Miami: arrives on time 26%

  1. 14:24 ORD → 18:39 MIA
    AA 3148 · American · 3h 19m · 51% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 08m layover in Miami (MIA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:47 MIA → 22:53 EWR
    AA 322 · American · 3h 08m · 46% on time, 2.5% cancelled

Total trip 7h 31m, scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection59%The first flight arrived more than 23 minutes late on 41% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 08m layover.
Arrives on time26%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (59%) × second flight not cancelled (2.5% are) and within 15 minutes (46%).
Total trip7h 31mORD 14:24 to EWR 22:53, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.