tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Las Vegas → Louisville via Philadelphia: arrives on time 36%

  1. 11:44 LAS → 19:46 PHL
    AA 3160 · American · 5h 02m · 50% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 52m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:38 PHL → 23:03 SDF
    AA 4466 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 25m · 86% on time, 3.3% cancelled

Total trip 8h 19m, scheduled departure to arrival (Louisville is 3 h ahead of Las Vegas). Times are local. Both flew on 26 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection44%The first flight arrived more than 7 minutes late on 56% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 52m layover.
Arrives on time36%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (44%) × second flight not cancelled (3.3% are) and within 15 minutes (86%).
Total trip8h 19mLAS 11:44 to SDF 23:03, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.