tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Los Angeles → Washington via Philadelphia: arrives on time 20%

  1. 10:14 LAX → 18:39 PHL
    AA 3164 · American · 5h 25m · 75% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 46m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:25 PHL → 20:41 DCA
    AA 5019 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 16m · 54% on time, 16.3% cancelled

Total trip 7h 27m, scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 3 h ahead of Los Angeles). Times are local. Both flew on 37 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection45%The first flight arrived more than 1 minutes late on 55% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 46m layover.
Arrives on time20%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (45%) × second flight not cancelled (16.3% are) and within 15 minutes (54%).
Total trip7h 27mLAX 10:14 to DCA 20:41, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.