tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Phoenix via Newark: arrives on time 54%

  1. 06:44 ORD → 10:02 EWR
    AA 3170 · American · 2h 18m · 81% on time, 4.2% cancelled
  2. 52m layover in Newark (EWR) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:54 EWR → 13:04 PHX
    AA 3058 · American · 5h 10m · 78% on time, 1.3% cancelled

Total trip 8h 20m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection73%The first flight arrived more than 7 minutes late on 27% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 52m layover.
Arrives on time54%First flight not cancelled (4.2% are) × connection made (73%) × second flight not cancelled (1.3% are) and within 15 minutes (78%).
Total trip8h 20mORD 06:44 to PHX 13:04, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.