tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Santa Ana → New York via Phoenix: arrives on time 56%

  1. 13:24 SNA → 14:50 PHX
    AA 3171 · American · 1h 26m · 73% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 01m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:51 PHX → 23:58 JFK
    AA 832 · American · 5h 07m · 76% on time, 1.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 34m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection74%The first flight arrived more than 16 minutes late on 26% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 01m layover.
Arrives on time56%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (74%) × second flight not cancelled (1.0% are) and within 15 minutes (76%).
Total trip7h 34mSNA 13:24 to JFK 23:58, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.