tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Dallas-Fort Worth via Fresno: arrives on time 38%

  1. 21:31 PHX → 23:07 FAT
    AA 3174 · American · 1h 36m · 56% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 52m layover in Fresno (FAT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 23:59 FAT → 05:10 DFW +1 day
    AA 2472 · American · 3h 11m · 80% on time, 3.2% cancelled

Total trip 5h 39m, scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 46 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection48%The first flight arrived more than 7 minutes late on 52% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 52m layover.
Arrives on time38%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (48%) × second flight not cancelled (3.2% are) and within 15 minutes (80%).
Total trip5h 39mPHX 21:31 to DFW 05:10, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.