tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Bozeman → Seattle via Chicago: arrives on time 22%

  1. 12:37 BZN → 16:58 ORD
    AA 3177 · American · 3h 22m · 64% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 49m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:47 ORD → 20:37 SEA
    AA 3105 · American · 4h 50m · 44% on time, 1.0% cancelled

Total trip 9h 00m, scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 1 h behind Bozeman). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection50%The first flight arrived more than 4 minutes late on 50% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 49m layover.
Arrives on time22%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (50%) × second flight not cancelled (1.0% are) and within 15 minutes (44%).
Total trip9h 00mBZN 12:37 to SEA 20:37, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.