tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Austin → New York via Phoenix: arrives on time 52%

  1. 14:35 AUS → 15:01 PHX
    AA 3181 · American · 2h 26m · 79% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:51 PHX → 23:58 JFK
    AA 832 · American · 5h 07m · 76% on time, 1.0% cancelled

Total trip 8h 23m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Austin). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection70%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 30% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time52%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (70%) × second flight not cancelled (1.0% are) and within 15 minutes (76%).
Total trip8h 23mAUS 14:35 to JFK 23:58, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.