tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Newark → Rochester via Chicago: arrives on time 74%

  1. 05:30 EWR → 07:15 ORD
    AA 3185 · American · 2h 45m · 88% on time, 8.3% cancelled
  2. 48m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 08:03 ORD → 10:58 ROC
    AA 3775 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 55m · 93% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 28m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection87%The first flight arrived more than 3 minutes late on 13% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 48m layover.
Arrives on time74%First flight not cancelled (8.3% are) × connection made (87%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (93%).
Total trip5h 28mEWR 05:30 to ROC 10:58, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.