tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Newark → Richmond via Chicago: arrives on time 76%

  1. 05:30 EWR → 07:15 ORD
    AA 3185 · American · 2h 45m · 88% on time, 8.3% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 08:10 ORD → 11:30 RIC
    AA 4500 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 20m · 94% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 00m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection88%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 12% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time76%First flight not cancelled (8.3% are) × connection made (88%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (94%).
Total trip6h 00mEWR 05:30 to RIC 11:30, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.