tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Las Vegas → Des Moines via Phoenix: arrives on time 32%

  1. 16:34 LAS → 17:48 PHX
    AA 3186 · American · 1h 14m · 58% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 02m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:50 PHX → 23:47 DSM
    AA 568 · American · 2h 49m · 55% on time, 1.3% cancelled

Total trip 5h 05m, scheduled departure to arrival (Des Moines is 2 h ahead of Las Vegas). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection58%The first flight arrived more than 17 minutes late on 42% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 02m layover.
Arrives on time32%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (58%) × second flight not cancelled (1.3% are) and within 15 minutes (55%).
Total trip5h 05mLAS 16:34 to DSM 23:47, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.