tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Las Vegas → Memphis via Phoenix: arrives on time 42%

  1. 16:34 LAS → 17:48 PHX
    AA 3186 · American · 1h 14m · 58% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 04m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:52 PHX → 23:59 MEM
    AA 3923 · American, flown by Envoy · 3h 07m · 71% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 25m, scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 2 h ahead of Las Vegas). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection59%The first flight arrived more than 19 minutes late on 41% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 04m layover.
Arrives on time42%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (59%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (71%).
Total trip5h 25mLAS 16:34 to MEM 23:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.