tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Las Vegas → Tulsa via Phoenix: arrives on time 43%

  1. 16:34 LAS → 17:48 PHX
    AA 3186 · American · 1h 14m · 58% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 16m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:04 PHX → 23:30 TUL
    AA 4037 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 26m · 65% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 56m, scheduled departure to arrival (Tulsa is 2 h ahead of Las Vegas). Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection66%The first flight arrived more than 31 minutes late on 34% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 16m layover.
Arrives on time43%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (66%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (65%).
Total trip4h 56mLAS 16:34 to TUL 23:30, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.