tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → San Jose via Phoenix: arrives on time 41%

  1. 18:01 DCA → 19:50 PHX
    AA 3191 · American · 4h 49m · 62% on time, 10.3% cancelled
  2. 57m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:47 PHX → 22:45 SJC
    AA 1537 · American · 1h 55m · 80% on time, 0.9% cancelled

Total trip 7h 41m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 3 h behind Washington). Times are local. Both flew on 0 of the last 56 days, too few to list among the best connections.

Makes the connection58%The first flight arrived more than 12 minutes late on 42% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 57m layover.
Arrives on time41%First flight not cancelled (10.3% are) × connection made (58%) × second flight not cancelled (0.9% are) and within 15 minutes (80%).
Total trip7h 41mDCA 18:01 to SJC 22:45, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.