tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Chicago via San Francisco: arrives on time 20%

  1. 10:53 PHX → 12:58 SFO
    AA 3199 · American · 2h 05m · 31% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 38m layover in San Francisco (SFO) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 14:36 SFO → 21:26 ORD
    AA 2550 · American · 4h 51m · 37% on time, 2.8% cancelled

Total trip 8h 34m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection54%The first flight arrived more than 53 minutes late on 46% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 38m layover.
Arrives on time20%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (54%) × second flight not cancelled (2.8% are) and within 15 minutes (37%).
Total trip8h 34mPHX 10:53 to ORD 21:26, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.