tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Miami via Los Angeles: arrives on time 46%

  1. 20:38 PHX → 22:07 LAX
    AA 3204 · American · 1h 29m · 67% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 57m layover in Los Angeles (LAX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 23:04 LAX → 07:18 MIA +1 day
    AA 2289 · American · 5h 14m · 70% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 40m, scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection66%The first flight arrived more than 12 minutes late on 34% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 57m layover.
Arrives on time46%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (66%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (70%).
Total trip7h 40mPHX 20:38 to MIA 07:18, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.