tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → Buffalo via Boston: arrives on time 34%

  1. 17:00 DCA → 18:47 BOS
    AA 3207 · American · 1h 47m · 43% on time, 2.1% cancelled
  2. 1h 13m layover in Boston (BOS) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:00 BOS → 21:50 BUF
    AA 4616 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 50m · 72% on time, 6.9% cancelled

Total trip 4h 50m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection52%The first flight arrived more than 28 minutes late on 48% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 13m layover.
Arrives on time34%First flight not cancelled (2.1% are) × connection made (52%) × second flight not cancelled (6.9% are) and within 15 minutes (72%).
Total trip4h 50mDCA 17:00 to BUF 21:50, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.