tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Nashville → Atlanta via Philadelphia: arrives on time 40%

  1. 11:32 BNA → 14:38 PHL
    AA 3221 · American · 2h 07m · 73% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 52m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:30 PHL → 17:51 ATL
    AA 2983 · American · 2h 21m · 62% on time, 2.8% cancelled

Total trip 5h 19m, scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection67%The first flight arrived more than 7 minutes late on 33% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 52m layover.
Arrives on time40%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (67%) × second flight not cancelled (2.8% are) and within 15 minutes (62%).
Total trip5h 19mBNA 11:32 to ATL 17:51, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.