tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Nashville → Hebron via Philadelphia: arrives on time 38%

  1. 11:32 BNA → 14:38 PHL
    AA 3221 · American · 2h 07m · 73% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 47m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:25 PHL → 17:26 CVG
    AA 5515 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 01m · 64% on time, 2.8% cancelled

Total trip 4h 54m, scheduled departure to arrival (Hebron is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection63%The first flight arrived more than 2 minutes late on 37% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 47m layover.
Arrives on time38%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (63%) × second flight not cancelled (2.8% are) and within 15 minutes (64%).
Total trip4h 54mBNA 11:32 to CVG 17:26, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.