tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Nashville → Norfolk via Philadelphia: arrives on time 54%

  1. 11:32 BNA → 14:38 PHL
    AA 3221 · American · 2h 07m · 73% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 54m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:32 PHL → 16:52 ORF
    AA 4749 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 20m · 79% on time, 1.4% cancelled

Total trip 4h 20m, scheduled departure to arrival (Norfolk is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection70%The first flight arrived more than 9 minutes late on 30% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 54m layover.
Arrives on time54%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (70%) × second flight not cancelled (1.4% are) and within 15 minutes (79%).
Total trip4h 20mBNA 11:32 to ORF 16:52, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.