tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Valparaiso → Chicago via Washington: arrives on time 31%

  1. 13:00 VPS → 16:15 DCA
    AA 3224 · American · 2h 15m · 42% on time, 2.8% cancelled
  2. 1h 07m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:22 DCA → 18:54 ORD
    AA 1630 · American · 2h 32m · 64% on time, 2.7% cancelled

Total trip 5h 54m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection51%The first flight arrived more than 22 minutes late on 49% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 07m layover.
Arrives on time31%First flight not cancelled (2.8% are) × connection made (51%) × second flight not cancelled (2.7% are) and within 15 minutes (64%).
Total trip5h 54mVPS 13:00 to ORD 18:54, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.