tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Valparaiso → New York via Washington: arrives on time 26%

  1. 13:00 VPS → 16:15 DCA
    AA 3224 · American · 2h 15m · 42% on time, 2.8% cancelled
  2. 1h 11m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:26 DCA → 18:57 LGA
    AA 4685 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 31m · 55% on time, 13.7% cancelled

Total trip 4h 57m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Valparaiso). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection56%The first flight arrived more than 26 minutes late on 44% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 11m layover.
Arrives on time26%First flight not cancelled (2.8% are) × connection made (56%) × second flight not cancelled (13.7% are) and within 15 minutes (55%).
Total trip4h 57mVPS 13:00 to LGA 18:57, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.