tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Miami → Richmond via New York: arrives on time 29%

  1. 12:51 MIA → 16:00 LGA
    AA 3229 · American · 3h 09m · 47% on time, 4.2% cancelled
  2. 1h 18m layover in New York (LGA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:18 LGA → 19:00 RIC
    AA 4503 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 38m · 63% on time, 5.8% cancelled

Total trip 6h 05m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 41 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection50%The first flight arrived more than 33 minutes late on 50% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 18m layover.
Arrives on time29%First flight not cancelled (4.2% are) × connection made (50%) × second flight not cancelled (5.8% are) and within 15 minutes (63%).
Total trip6h 05mMIA 12:51 to RIC 19:00, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.