tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Tulsa via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 25%

  1. 17:15 PHX → 21:50 DFW
    AA 3232 · American · 2h 35m · 59% on time, 5.6% cancelled
  2. 48m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:38 DFW → 23:47 TUL
    AA 531 · American · 1h 09m · 62% on time, 4.2% cancelled

Total trip 4h 32m, scheduled departure to arrival (Tulsa is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 53 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection44%The first flight arrived more than 3 minutes late on 56% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 48m layover.
Arrives on time25%First flight not cancelled (5.6% are) × connection made (44%) × second flight not cancelled (4.2% are) and within 15 minutes (62%).
Total trip4h 32mPHX 17:15 to TUL 23:47, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.