tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Miami → Phoenix via Las Vegas: arrives on time 17%

  1. 17:05 MIA → 19:17 LAS
    AA 3236 · American · 5h 16m · 61% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 48m layover in Las Vegas (LAS) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:05 LAS → 21:18 PHX
    AA 1022 · American · 1h 13m · 40% on time, 4.8% cancelled

Total trip 7h 13m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Miami). Times are local. Both flew on 21 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection43%The first flight arrived more than 3 minutes late on 57% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 48m layover.
Arrives on time17%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (43%) × second flight not cancelled (4.8% are) and within 15 minutes (40%).
Total trip7h 13mMIA 17:05 to PHX 21:18, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.