tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → Birmingham via Miami: arrives on time 40%

  1. 19:10 DCA → 22:00 MIA
    AA 3244 · American · 2h 50m · 49% on time, 5.6% cancelled
  2. 56m layover in Miami (MIA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:56 MIA → 23:59 BHM
    AA 3427 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 03m · 85% on time, 0.3% cancelled

Total trip 5h 49m, scheduled departure to arrival (Birmingham is 1 h behind Washington). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection49%The first flight arrived more than 11 minutes late on 51% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 56m layover.
Arrives on time40%First flight not cancelled (5.6% are) × connection made (49%) × second flight not cancelled (0.3% are) and within 15 minutes (85%).
Total trip5h 49mDCA 19:10 to BHM 23:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.