tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Tampa → Phoenix via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 31%

  1. 13:57 TPA → 15:46 DFW
    AA 3245 · American · 2h 49m · 57% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 51m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 16:37 DFW → 17:09 PHX
    AA 1155 · American · 2h 32m · 66% on time, 2.8% cancelled

Total trip 6h 12m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Tampa). Times are local. Both flew on 30 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection48%The first flight arrived more than 6 minutes late on 52% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 51m layover.
Arrives on time31%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (48%) × second flight not cancelled (2.8% are) and within 15 minutes (66%).
Total trip6h 12mTPA 13:57 to PHX 17:09, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.