tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Tampa → Birmingham via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 30%

  1. 13:57 TPA → 15:46 DFW
    AA 3245 · American · 2h 49m · 57% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 53m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 16:39 DFW → 18:35 BHM
    AA 3417 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 56m · 61% on time, 2.9% cancelled

Total trip 5h 38m, scheduled departure to arrival (Birmingham is 1 h behind Tampa). Times are local. Both flew on 27 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection51%The first flight arrived more than 8 minutes late on 49% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 53m layover.
Arrives on time30%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (51%) × second flight not cancelled (2.9% are) and within 15 minutes (61%).
Total trip5h 38mTPA 13:57 to BHM 18:35, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.