tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Miami → Memphis via New York: arrives on time 45%

  1. 09:56 MIA → 12:59 LGA
    AA 3256 · American · 3h 03m · 80% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 52m layover in New York (LGA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 13:51 LGA → 15:53 MEM
    AA 4461 · American, flown by Republic · 3h 02m · 65% on time, 4.2% cancelled

Total trip 6h 57m, scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 1 h behind Miami). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection73%The first flight arrived more than 7 minutes late on 27% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 52m layover.
Arrives on time45%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (73%) × second flight not cancelled (4.2% are) and within 15 minutes (65%).
Total trip6h 57mMIA 09:56 to MEM 15:53, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.