tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Francisco → Las Vegas via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 37%

  1. 12:36 SFO → 18:29 DFW
    AA 3258 · American · 3h 56m · 73% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 53m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:22 DFW → 20:11 LAS
    AA 1771 · American · 2h 49m · 59% on time, 4.5% cancelled

Total trip 7h 35m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection66%The first flight arrived more than 8 minutes late on 34% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 53m layover.
Arrives on time37%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (66%) × second flight not cancelled (4.5% are) and within 15 minutes (59%).
Total trip7h 35mSFO 12:36 to LAS 20:11, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.