Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026
Chicago → Sacramento via Phoenix: arrives on time 49%
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17:34 ORD → 19:19 PHXAA 3261 · American · 3h 45m · 56% on time, 0.0% cancelled
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1h 29m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
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20:48 PHX → 22:42 SMFAA 2048 · American · 1h 54m · 68% on time, 0.8% cancelled
Total trip 7h 08m, scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 2 h behind Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.
Makes the connection72%The first flight arrived more than 44 minutes late on 28% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 29m layover.
Arrives on time49%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (72%) × second flight not cancelled (0.8% are) and within 15 minutes (68%).
Total trip7h 08mORD 17:34 to SMF 22:42, layover included
Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.
Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.