tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Salt Lake City via Phoenix: arrives on time 42%

  1. 17:34 ORD → 19:19 PHX
    AA 3261 · American · 3h 45m · 56% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 01m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:20 PHX → 23:03 SLC
    AA 4921 · American, flown by SkyWest · 1h 43m · 73% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 29m, scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 1 h behind Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection57%The first flight arrived more than 16 minutes late on 43% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 01m layover.
Arrives on time42%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (57%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (73%).
Total trip6h 29mORD 17:34 to SLC 23:03, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.