tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Newark → Madison via Chicago: arrives on time 81%

  1. 06:56 EWR → 08:44 ORD
    AA 3267 · American · 2h 48m · 88% on time, 2.6% cancelled
  2. 2h 08m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:52 ORD → 12:02 MSN
    AA 3437 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 10m · 89% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 06m, scheduled departure to arrival (Madison is 1 h behind Newark). Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection93%The first flight arrived more than 83 minutes late on 7% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 08m layover.
Arrives on time81%First flight not cancelled (2.6% are) × connection made (93%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (89%).
Total trip6h 06mEWR 06:56 to MSN 12:02, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.