tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Newark → Minneapolis via Chicago: arrives on time 83%

  1. 06:56 EWR → 08:44 ORD
    AA 3267 · American · 2h 48m · 88% on time, 2.6% cancelled
  2. 3h 01m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 11:45 ORD → 13:27 MSP
    AA 3719 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 42m · 90% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 31m, scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Newark). Times are local. Both flew on 26 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection95%The first flight arrived more than 136 minutes late on 5% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 01m layover.
Arrives on time83%First flight not cancelled (2.6% are) × connection made (95%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (90%).
Total trip7h 31mEWR 06:56 to MSP 13:27, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.