tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Newark → Wilmington via Chicago: arrives on time 70%

  1. 06:56 EWR → 08:44 ORD
    AA 3267 · American · 2h 48m · 88% on time, 2.6% cancelled
  2. 2h 56m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 11:40 ORD → 15:01 ILM
    AA 4009 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 21m · 77% on time, 1.6% cancelled

Total trip 8h 05m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection95%The first flight arrived more than 131 minutes late on 5% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 56m layover.
Arrives on time70%First flight not cancelled (2.6% are) × connection made (95%) × second flight not cancelled (1.6% are) and within 15 minutes (77%).
Total trip8h 05mEWR 06:56 to ILM 15:01, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.