tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Newark → Traverse City via Chicago: arrives on time 74%

  1. 06:56 EWR → 08:44 ORD
    AA 3267 · American · 2h 48m · 88% on time, 2.6% cancelled
  2. 48m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 09:32 ORD → 11:54 TVC
    AA 4190 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 22m · 90% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 58m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection85%The first flight arrived more than 3 minutes late on 15% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 48m layover.
Arrives on time74%First flight not cancelled (2.6% are) × connection made (85%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (90%).
Total trip4h 58mEWR 06:56 to TVC 11:54, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.