tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Jackson → San Diego via Chicago: arrives on time 20%

  1. 15:39 JAC → 20:07 ORD
    AA 3282 · American · 3h 28m · 47% on time, 2.8% cancelled
  2. 1h 03m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:10 ORD → 23:26 SAN
    AA 2457 · American · 4h 16m · 45% on time, 5.6% cancelled

Total trip 8h 47m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 1 h behind Jackson). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection48%The first flight arrived more than 18 minutes late on 52% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 03m layover.
Arrives on time20%First flight not cancelled (2.8% are) × connection made (48%) × second flight not cancelled (5.6% are) and within 15 minutes (45%).
Total trip8h 47mJAC 15:39 to SAN 23:26, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.