tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → San Francisco via Los Angeles: arrives on time 70%

  1. 18:01 DCA → 20:41 LAX
    AA 3283 · American · 5h 40m · 70% on time, 2.7% cancelled
  2. 1h 51m layover in Los Angeles (LAX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:32 LAX → 23:59 SFO
    AA 6510 · American, flown by SkyWest · 1h 27m · 81% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 8h 58m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Washington). Times are local. Both flew on 29 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection89%The first flight arrived more than 66 minutes late on 11% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 51m layover.
Arrives on time70%First flight not cancelled (2.7% are) × connection made (89%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (81%).
Total trip8h 58mDCA 18:01 to SFO 23:59, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.